Commentary: Vietnam’s submarine no way to scare China

　BEIJING, September 10 (ChinaMil) ― “As the Kilo-class submarines imported from Russia are successively commissioned, Vietnam will soon pose an effective maritime deterrent to China on the South China Sea. This will force China to think twice when it challenges this much smaller neighbor on issues concerning the disputed waters.”
　　A report on September 7 by Reuters gave such “advice” to China, and Kanwa Defense Review, a Canadian online magazine on East Asian issues, even held that Vietnam’s submarines are enough to block the Yalong Bay. However, Chinese experts believed that the submarine threat from Vietnam is nothing to be afraid of although it cannot be underestimated either.
　　Vietnam deters China with submarine
　　According to Reuters, Vietnam has already commissioned two advanced Kilo-class submarines and will receive the third one in November, while the rest three will be successively delivered in the next two years.
　　Experts hold that once Vietnam’s submarine force is fully capable of combat, it is very likely to carry out the so-called regional denial activities along its coastline and its military base in the South China Sea.
　　“Although China has a much larger naval force, including an underwater fleet of 70 submarines, Vietnam’s submarines will increase China’s concern over Vietnam in armed conflicts over the disputed waters.”
　　Media report quoted Collin Kong from the Rajaratnam School of International Studies in the Nanyang Technological University of Singapore as saying that “creating a psychological deterrent by making it impossible for a stronger maritime opponent to know where your submarines are is typical asymmetrical warfare, which makes use of the strong side’s weakness. I think the Vietnamese understand this very well, but the problem is whether they can perform well underwater.”
　　It is reported that Vietnam will deploy its Kilo-class submarines at the Cam Ranh Bay. The report quoted former western submariner as saying that the geographical position of the Cam Ranh Bay is very suitable for Vietnam’s Kilo-class submarines not only because it is the nearest large port to the Nansha Islands, but also because it has the Xisha Islands within its scope of deterrence.
　　Besides, although most waters of the South China Sea are shallow sea, where submarines are hard to carry out operations, the Cam Ranh Bay is close to some deep waters adjoining the Vietnamese continent.
　　According to the article, the first two Kilo-class submarines are seen in frequent trainings along the Vietnamese coastline recently.
　　“Vietnam has changed the overall situation,” said an arms transfer researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), while Zhang Baohui, a China security expert at the Hong Kong-based Lingnan University, believed that China’s military planners are very concerned with those submarines. “Theoretically speaking, Vietnam can put them into combat.”
　　Vietnam’s submarines more advanced than China’s “Kilo”?
　　According to Reuters, Kilo-class submarines are considered the quietest ones in the world and have been continuously improved since the 1980s.
　　According to the article, Vietnam’s Kilo-class submarines are more advanced than China’s 12 Kilo-class ones, which were commissioned 10 years ago, because the ones on the Vietnamese side have been improved in internal noise control, arms control and loading system.
　　In addition to short-range torpedoes, modern Kilo-class submarines can also launch sea-skimming missiles with the range of 300 kilometers. The SIPRI estimated that Vietnam has received at least 10 “Club” anti-ship missiles this year as part of the series of agreements it has signed with Moscow.
　　The article published by Kanwa Defense Review in the September issue also deemed that the six Kilo 636VM submarines equipped in the Vietnamese Navy today far outperform the Kilo 636 submarines of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN).
　　The article even bragged that “the six Kilo 636VM submarines and the small Vietnam-made submarines are enough to block the Beibu Gulf, the Yalong Bay and even the Zhanjiang Port”.
　　It further added that based on the experience of the Malvinas War, submarines can “influence the entire situation for their peerless and unprecedented deterrent force”.
　　According to a Chinese military expert, as Vietnam’s 636VM submarines are built quite late, they are likely to have adopted a few new technologies, but won’t differ much from China’s 636 submarines in major technical and combat parameters. In addition, China’s submarine industry has developed by leaps and bounds in recent years, many of its technologies are not inferior to that of Russian submarine in any way, and China is completely able to independently upgrade its submarines. Therefore, the saying that Vietnam’s Kilo far outperforms China’s Kilo doesn’t hold water at all.
　　“Attach tactical importance but strategic contempt”
　　According to a Chinese expert, China should pay close attention to Vietnam’s Kilo-class submarines from a tactical perspective, such as strengthening surveillance and monitoring.
　　He also noted that even if we disregard the fact that Vietnam has just bought the submarines, its training is of low level and tactical operation is immature, and even if those submarines can play out their full combat capability, the gap in the strength of naval forces between China and Vietnam won’t be substantially changed.
　　We cannot assess the strength of an army just on the basis of one or two weapons. What’s most important in the modern warfare is systematic strength, and what decides the overall combat capability isn’t usually the strongest aspect.
　　Although distance will impair the overall advantage possessed by the Chinese PLAN over Vietnam, China’s strength in long-range precise strike and underwater fleet is unparalleled by Vietnam. Once a conflict takes place, the Chinese troops won’t wait for the Vietnamese submarines to block their way.
　　Besides, to engage in a submarine battle, Vietnam also needs external support in terms of intelligence, commanding, communication and marine hydrology, which are no less important than the submarine itself. Even the simplest issue of underwater sea-route information may have to take Vietnam quite some time.
　　According to the said expert, if we follow the comparison made by the foreign media, perhaps even the U.S. nuclear submarine is no rival against the Vietnamese underwater fleet. Apparently, those media’s hype was only aimed to draw attention.
　　Vietnam needs to have an objective understanding of its own strength. It used to learn some hard lessons in this regard, so it had better keep a clear mind now.